It may seem too early to discuss the Premier League title race after only four matches, but Arsenal and Manchester City have already begun to separate themselves from the chasing pack.
The two clubs, who have finished in the top two in three of the past four seasons, are the only teams to have collected maximum points so far. That naturally raises an important question: is this season already shaping up to be a two-team title battle?
Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham entered the campaign with renewed optimism after changes in their managerial teams. However, their opening performances have ranged from disappointing to deeply concerning.
Arsenal and Manchester City both have 12 points from four matches. They are already four points clear of third-placed Hull City and five points ahead of the remaining teams.
Hull’s excellent start deserves recognition, although the club may not yet view themselves as genuine title contenders.
Arsenal and Manchester City Set the Early Pace
Arsenal began the season as defending Premier League champions and pre-season favourites. Under Mikel Arteta, they ended a 22-year wait for the title last season, although their success was sometimes associated with a controlled and physically demanding style of football.
They made an impressive start to the new campaign by defeating Manchester City 3-0 in the Community Shield.
Since then, Arsenal have continued their strong run with league victories over Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland. They have also defeated Napoli in the Champions League.
Including the end of last season, Arsenal have now won nine consecutive league matches. Their last 90-minute defeat in any competition came against Manchester City on 19 April.
City, meanwhile, have experienced a significant change after Pep Guardiola’s departure following a decade in charge. Guardiola won six Premier League titles during that period, including a historic Treble.
His former assistant Enzo Maresca has taken over and has guided City to four league victories from four matches after their Community Shield defeat by Arsenal.
City have beaten Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Coventry in the league, while also defeating Porto in the Champions League. Their latest success came in controversial circumstances against Manchester United, where Erling Haaland scored the only goal.
The Premier League’s refereeing body later acknowledged that the goal should have been disallowed for offside.
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The Numbers Do Not Tell the Whole Story
Despite their perfect records, Arsenal and Manchester City have not completely dominated every statistical category.
Brighton have scored 13 goals, while Chelsea have found the net 10 times. Both figures are higher than the eight goals scored by Arsenal and City respectively.
In terms of shots, Arsenal rank 10th in the league and City sit 11th. Their touches inside the opposition penalty area are more encouraging, with City sixth and Arsenal fifth.
The strongest aspect of both teams’ starts has been their defensive organisation. Arsenal have conceded only once, while City have allowed two goals. Those are among the best defensive records in the division.
The bookmakers’ next three title favourites before the season began were Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, with Tottenham viewed as a more distant contender.
However, none of those clubs has made the kind of start required to immediately challenge the leading pair.
Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Struggle
Chelsea and Liverpool both appointed new managers during the summer, bringing in Xabi Alonso and Andoni Iraola respectively.
Manchester United and Tottenham had already changed managers earlier in 2026, giving Michael Carrick and Roberto De Zerbi the opportunity to oversee their first full pre-seasons.
All four clubs had reasons to expect improvement after disappointing previous campaigns. Chelsea finished 10th last season, Liverpool ended their title defence in fifth place, and Tottenham finished 17th. Manchester United placed third after recovering under Carrick.
Chelsea currently sit fifth and have lost only once. They have scored 10 goals, but their defensive record is a major concern, with nine goals conceded.
They have allowed at least two goals in each of their opening four Premier League matches for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign.
Liverpool are seventh and remain unbeaten, but three of their four matches have ended in draws. It is only the third time in the past 63 seasons that they have failed to win either of their first two home league fixtures.
Manchester United occupy 13th place with four points, matching their joint-worst start to a Premier League season since the competition began in 1992-93. Their total is the same as it was at this stage last season.
United have recorded more shots than any other team, with 84 attempts, and have conceded the second-fewest shots at 41. Despite those numbers, they have scored and conceded seven goals.
Tottenham, who would not necessarily have expected to compete for the title after two successive 17th-place finishes, are also 17th in the table. Their start has been particularly poor, as they have failed to score in their first four league matches for the first time in the club’s history.
What Does History Say About the Title Race?
A fast start does not automatically guarantee championship success.
Before the current campaign, 80 teams in English top-flight history had won their opening four league matches. Only 24 of those sides eventually went on to win the title.
In the Premier League era, nine of the 28 teams that began a season with four consecutive victories went on to become champions. Manchester City were the most recent example, achieving the feat in the 2023-24 season.
The current campaign is also only the seventh Premier League season in which at least two clubs have won their first four matches.
Premier League Seasons with Multiple Teams Winning Their First Four Matches
| Season | Clubs with Four Wins | Champions |
|---|---|---|
| 2004-05 | Chelsea, Arsenal | Chelsea |
| 2005-06 | Chelsea, Charlton Athletic | Chelsea |
| 2009-10 | Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester City | Chelsea |
| 2011-12 | Manchester City, Manchester United | Manchester City |
| 2018-19 | Liverpool, Chelsea, Watford | Manchester City |
| 2020-21 | Everton, Aston Villa | Manchester City |
| 2026-27 | Arsenal, Manchester City | To be decided |
History also offers little encouragement to the teams already trailing the leaders.
Only two clubs have won the Premier League after being at least five points behind the leaders following the opening four matches.
Manchester United achieved the recovery five times under Sir Alex Ferguson, during the 1992-93, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons. Manchester City also overcame that early deficit under Pep Guardiola in 2020-21.
There is still a long way to go, but Arsenal and Manchester City have established an early advantage. If their form continues, the rest of the Premier League may find it difficult to keep pace.